The last couple of years have seen a great deal of speculation regarding Poland’s eventual euro adoption date. At one point it was 2012, but this has slipped and slipped again, much to the dismay of the business community.

To their dismay, that is, until recently, when membership in the euro club suddenly became a liability. The common currency is now wavering, and if the Greek crisis leads to a domino effect – possibly taking down Spain next – further pressure could jeopardize the project altogether.

That’s a worst-case – and relatively unlikely – scenario. But regardless, for the moment the złoty’s strength is proving advantageous for consumers, importers and debtors with loans denominated in foreign currencies. It’s disadvantageous for exporters, but so far the robustness of the Polish currency hasn’t undermined competitiveness.

Doubters proven wrong

There was a time that some believed the euro zone authorities would find a way to postpone Poland’s adoption of the euro simply out of a kind of prejudice – CEE countries are often perceived in Western Europe as poor, irresponsible little brothers. Sure, Slovenia and Slovakia have entered in recent years, but both are small and pose few risks.

Lithuania missed the inflation target by a tenth of a percent in 2006, and was denied access. Though that decision looks prescient now, given the Baltic states’ economic meltdown last year, those circumstances couldn’t have been foreseen by a tiny uptick in inflation four years ago. The consensus at the time was that the EC was using Lithuania to send a message to Poland about fiscal responsibility.

“The whole debate about Lithuania isn’t about Lithuania. It’s about Poland,” an economist at the Centre for European Reform told WBJ at the time.

But oh, how times have changed. Today the euro is a risky currency, and Poland’s economy is the healthiest on the continent. Polish analysts say the country should be wary of adoption – the pressure on it would bring unnecessary instability to markets here.

Poland should join ... eventually

But there’s an open question as to how long the effects of the crisis will be felt, and Poland still has years to go before it will meet the strict Maastricht criteria. By then, it’s fully possible that the euro will be a strong, stable currency again. Indeed. We must not allow the current crisis (and perhaps a twinge of schadenfreude?) to become a weapon for those who oppose euro membership.

On the whole, joining the euro zone would be positive for Poland. Importers and exporters would avoid the currency fluctuations that hamstrung them at the beginning of last year. Having the currency would encourage more FDI, especially from other euro zone countries. It would make interbank lending and transfers cheaper and simpler. In short, having the euro would eliminate a tax levied on all Polish firms doing business with the country’s largest trading partner – the euro zone.

The euro has its problems

The euro zone isn’t a perfect monetary union by any stretch of the imagination. The current crisis shows just how fragile it is without a centralized fiscal policy. The Stability and Growth Pact – which theoretically limits euro zone countries’ budget deficits to no more than three percent of GDP and national debt to no more than 60 percent of GDP – is a sham in practice. Few euro zone members adhere to the constraints, and there are legitimate concerns that it doesn’t allow countries enough flexibility during economic slumps. It should be scrapped or revised – as should the Maastricht criteria for euro zone convergence.

Indeed, maybe this crisis will achieve what the Lisbon Treaty couldn’t – greater fiscal responsibility among member states. Alternatively, it could also convince countries that the monetary union doesn’t work.

Thus, Poland should adopt a more laissez-faire attitude when it comes to the euro. As our experts advise in this week’s cover story (pp. 12-13), it should continue moving towards euro adoption, both to keep international investors convinced of its fiscal responsibility, and to be ready when the euro zone is ready to accept it.

But for now, it has the luxury of time. And time, as the adage goes, is money.